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US Consumer Confidence Preview: at record highs, but market's attention somewhere else

Written by By Dmitry Lukashov | 2018-10-11 13:56:39 GMT

 Another gauge of consumer confidence, the CB private research group one, also hit a multi-year high in September, indicating that job growth and a strong economic outlook bolstered Americans’ expectations for the future. The index rose to 138.4 in September from 134.7 in August.

Consumer confidence will most likely remain high, as the causes of September record readings remain the same, and despite the Michigan reading is seen retreating, the index will likely remain at above healthy levels, although a slide below the 100 level could be a psychological drag for speculative interest, moreover in the current dollar-negative environment. If something, consumption could cool in the medium-term, should trade tensions take a turn to the worse.

The short-term effects of the release could be directly linked to what equities and yields are doing ahead of the release, as both have stolen all of the market's attention.  Nevertheless and considering the ongoing dollar's weakness, it could be that a worse-than-expected outcome exacerbates dollar selling while an above-expected one would do little for the greenback.

 

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By Dmitry Lukashov
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