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Weekly Market Brief (Forex and Commodities)

Written by Trade View Team | 2018-03-13 00:30:00 GMT

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence

For a move higher we must now see this market hold above 0.7833, followed by a strong break and close above 0.7903. Should this occur we will look for this market to retest 0.7988; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move back up to 0.8033.

If we cannot hold above 0.7833, we are likely to see a move lower into 0.7729. Should the downside momentum continue we could see 0.7662 quickly before another pause; and if selling pressure is strong a move into 0.7600 cannot be ruled out.

 

EUR/USD – 1.2305 ( -15 or -0.12% )

The EURO finished off the week where we started with the Italian Elections largely unresolved. 

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 19:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks
Fri 21:00 – Final CPI (annual)

For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.2266 followed by a strong break through 1.2360. Should this occur, we will then look for this market to test 1.2420; and if momentum is very strong we could see a push higher into 1.2520.

If the EURO cannot close above 1.2266, we could see a move back down 1.2165 before a pause. This is an important level and any subsequent strong break and close below this level may see the EURO sell-off further into 1.2042 this week.

 

GBP/USD – 1.3849 ( +51 or +0.37% )

The Pound was eeringly quiet last week and so we again remain on alert for a breakout.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 20:30 – Annual Budget Release

For a move to the upside we would like to see a strong break and close above 1.3875 A break above this level may result in moves into 1.4075 and 1.4194. Should momentum remain strong to the upside, we could see a move into 1.4223 by the week’s end.

If we cannot close above 1.3875 we could see a quick move down into 1.3743 – 1.3725 before a pause. A continued sell-off may see another move lower into 1.3683 and 1.3654, with a strong break below these levels meaning cable may trade down into 1.3534. If momentum continues to remain strong, we could see a sharp decline to 1.3277.

 

USD/JPY – 106.81 ( +110 or +1.04% )

The $/YEN has found its relief rally and we are watching this market closely to see what kind of bounce this is in the $/YEN. 

For a continued move to the upside we would now like to see the market hold above 106.30 followed by a close above 107.36. Should this occur we will then be looking for a quick move into 107.75. A strong break and close above 107.75 could then see a quick move into 108.31 before a pause. If momentum is very strong this week, we cannot rule out a move to 109.21 by the end of the week.

If however the USD/JPY cannot hold above 106.30 and fails at 105.79, a break below could see the USD/JPY trade quickly down to 104.97 before a potential pause. Should we continue to trade lower and see continued downside pressure on the USD/JPY- a sharp move to 103.99 is possible.

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1323 ( +1 or +0.08% )

GOLD has also finished the week off where it started and the question now is- can this market hold support or are we to see a sharp move lower?

For a continued move higher we must now see this market break and close above 1333. Should this occur we will look for a move into 1355, and a close above this level could see further upside into 1365. If momentum remains very strong, a very strong move into 1374.

If Gold cannot close above 1333, we will look for a strong move back down into the key 1322 level. A strong break below this level could see GOLD sell off further into 1303, and if momentum is strong to the downside we could see a sharp move down into 1294.

Author

Trade View Team
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